hey guys, If you back value runners at double figure odds at 20w/40p would that be any good?

coops

Only if you can pick them at the right price.

Yes, but you would want to be getting them to place 1/3 and winning 1/10 to be profitable..If you are confident you can do that, then you are laughing.

Remember, alot of money in punting is dead money. And by that, I mean people at the TAB following everyone else. Dogs that should be $3.00 gets crunched into odds on because someone has 2k on it..then aabout 10 people see the big move for it, so they follow it and next think you know, its going around a $1.60 fav... Backing double figure odds is great if you can find the right dog. Dont be afraid to back afraid to back a 6-7-8 dollar shot because if you think the dog is nearly the best in the race, well there is your value.

just worked out my top selections at your 50/100 outlay $25650 return $26605 profit of $955 so return of 3.59% on outlay. That is from the dates of 16-12-09 until 28-12-09. so a ok return on less then 2 weeks.

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Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 20th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $4650
Return - $4510

Profit - $-140 (-3%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 16

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Bendigo

Lay - Marchell (Race 5, No.3) - Watchdog has tipped on top and looks suited here? Not even close. Virtually the entire field are handy dogs at this middle distance, where Marchell will struggle severly to not only match these dogs for early speed, but he will not be close to storng enough to hold them out. Big lay. Lucky to even run a place, look for him at the tail of the field. Sent out as third favourite and ran last. Enough said.

Best - Ashleigh Ella (Race 7, No.8) - Big class factor who blew away the super impressived Aston Trivett in 30.03 when last in week. Loves wide draws. Had no luck when first up from a spell when barely beaten in slick time by the smart Tis The One. Looks suited to this draw and class and should cover this lot well. Sizzled early sizzled home. Lead all the way in a flying 24.01

Value - Girl from Texas (Race 10. No.2) - Will without a doubt start double figures, if not in the 20's somewhere. Form looks ordinary but has been racing against the likes of Miss Martini, Cool Times and Olga Doll.. All very slick runners who would blow this field away. Only win came from this same draw and with a very ordinary field combined here, look for improvement at huge odds.

Maitland

Lay - No lay on card. Wanted to put Seize the moment, but it does have lengths on the field. But still be wary when taking him today. He musters well but this field can squeeze him up early and alot of this dogs will run about in 22.70 or 60 with a clear go and will make it hard from him to come behind in that sort of time. Super Laurie is the main danger in that race. Sent out odds on and didn't even run a place. Enough said.


Best - No best bet on the card

Value - Devine Rise (Race 4, No.8) - In a race jammed back with formlines and dogs putting strings of wins and 2nds together, the red based on its 22.66 win from the red looks like it will gets sent out a short favourite, but with speed in 2 and 3, I can see this dog getting cramped and chopped out early. Boxes 6 and 7 have no speed at all, so this will suit Devine Rise in the pink, as well as recording his PB from this box and the big wide track will ensure this dog gets every possible. BIG SHOW. Did not see race, just result. 2nd

Agent Maxwell (Race 10, No.6) - Really interesting dog. Has had one win at the track in a sizzling 22.64. I tell you now, if it runs this, it will win and win well. This is not a hard race. Form looks ordinary, but has been racing harder dogs than this. Gets its chance to bounce back into the winners list and as long as it handles Box 6, it goes close.

Sandown

Lay - Pub Fund (Race 11. No.3) - Prolific provincial winner not suited to the 515m at Sandown, nor the short run to the first marker. Needs to lead clearly to have even a chance of hanging on. Bit of a speed outside of it, and as the more than likely favourite of the race, Id glad lay this then be a punter 10/10.

Best - Paragon Patch (Race 8, No.3) - Grand ole chaser who can wreck its chances by bad beginnings. If this dog has any luck in running it will win and win running away..Am glad it is drawn closer to the fence then out wide. Both dogs on its inside dont show blistering pace, so it should position up close enough to take control on the point of the home turn. Cant miss a place.

Value - Another Innings (Race 9, No.8) - No luck of late and I mean no luck at all. Not super ideally drawn in the pink at sandown but with 2 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts from outside draws, he can certainly handle it. Meets a full field of provincial chasers and recently has been racing against the ilk of Iso Octane (off the pace to 3 lengths).

Angle Park

Lay - Cyan Lorian (Race 9, No.2) - The HotDog form have this greyhound as their top pick and top rated. Not sure if this is correct, but if it is, I am a bit surprised. Even though it looks as though the trip wiil suit, stepping up ridiculously in class against the likes of Kimberely Jinx, Barely's Image and the ultra impressive Satanic Cash (who really should be winning)

Best- High Earner (Race 8, No.1) - How can you look past him after last weeks top win. Drawn ideally in the red and Dyna Lachlan and Turanza Bale drawn next to him arent the best of beginners lately so he will have every chance to lead and if he does he wins. Simple. Star chaser.

Value - Redline Elly (Race 3, No.1) - Hit n miss beginner who needs some clear room early. No doubt its motor and I always like to back dogs with big motors. Wouldnt say its ideally drawn in the red but is a class factor dog.

Albion Park

Lay - Velocity Trish (Race 5, No.3) - Boxed shocking with Long Time Mama on it's inside a notorious quick beginner and Tap and Rack who is classer type who has been racing the likes of Vociferious and Robo Raptor. Wont get any room to move early and is an on pace runner. Can't come off the pace. Leave alone.

Best - Visualisation (Race 7, No.3) - Had it last week when it ran 2nd, aim to go one better here when racing verse the odds-on in the red. Should get value because of this fact and loves Albion Park being placed 18 of 24 runs there with a slashing PB of 30.13.

Value - Carlingford Frost (Race 10, No.2) - No speed at all in the inside 4 boxes will allow this dog every possible chance to land in front over the 600m. If it does, very hard to hold out and will be huge odds. Has been out of form of late, but this race is suitable to bounce back.

Hobart

Lay - Capetown Kid (Race 3, No.3) - Slow beginner who needs everything to go right. Hotdogs top tip meets a pretty solid Maiden Semi final. Look for him to be in trouble and unwinding at the end into third.

Best - Damek (Race 5, No.1) - Not sure what this dog is doing in a maiden series in Hobart after its almost unbelievable 26.10 Heat win. To give you an idea of how dominating that is, in the 8 semi finals, the 2nd quickest dog went 26.47. The difference between him and the next best dog out of the remaining 64 dogs is 6 lengths. Thats dominating. He is short and he wins. He wins final too.

If you want another measuring stick for this greyhound, Prankster won the Hobart Cup in 26.05. Enough said for a dog having his first race start from Box 5 too lol.

Value - Spark Driver (Race 1, No.6) - Races like this distance will suit and has his solo victory from a wide draw. Favourite last time was victorious but not ultra impressive. Big odds and worth an each-way ticket.

Dapto

Lay - On Parole (Race 6, No.2) - I am probably going to regret this and this will end my streak of lays, but I have to stick with my gut. Dog has a flawless record of 5 wins and 2 seconds at 7 starts at the track. However, it meets one of the hottest fields this dog has encountered. It has no early speed anymore at all. Half these dogs can break 30 seconds and for the simple fact that he wont lead this field and he is going to need luck hugely, I am going to advise against anchoring this in exotics or backing.

Best - Snowsil (Race 9, No.1) - Again, I layed this at even money last week and it got rolled for the first time in its career. Tonight, boxed much much better it should get the cake. No luck last start, it should get a sweet ride on the rails and improve to victory.

Value - Billy Said (Race 8, No.2) - Dog is racing with not an ounce of luck. Came off the pace to run 3rd beaten 4 lengths in a SUB 30 time at Nowra. This dog is reknowned for being a front running dog. Tonight it gets it chance to lead and be veryyyy hard to roll if this happens.

Value - Spark Driver (Race 1, No.6) - Races like this distance will suit and has his solo victory from a wide draw. Favourite last time was victorious but not ultra impressive. Big odds and worth an each-way ticket.

Sent out a whopping $53.80 and ran second beaten along way by the $1.30 long odds on favourite, with the 2nd and 3rd favourite running 3rd and 4th, the F4 paid over 1k which is amazing...

Just for the place, it paid $7.90....... Happy days...

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 21st (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $5850
Return - $6040

Profit - $190 (+3%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 22

Broken Down Results of lay run
Favourite - 9
2nd Favourite - 4
3rd Favourite - 4
Other - 4


*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Shepparton

Lay - Punk Norris (Race 9, No.3) - Talented youngster who 3 wins have all come at the Meadows in slashing times for a lightly raced dog. Of late, this dog has been a bit dicey at box rise, and today over the 390m it is very vulnerable in a field which does not necessarily have immense depth, but just about each dog can hold their own in a race like this. I say too much zip in this field for Punk and at the $2.40 watchdog have put up, leave alone.

Best - Irinka Joshua (Race 6, No.8) - Dog which I have never tipped before but stats dont lie. Blistering winner 2 starts back in BOD 22.12 and then it took a dog of the ilk of Nova Surf to blouse him in a sizzling 22.03 at Ballarat. 3 of 5 wins come from wide draws. Too many things point to good thing.

Value - Bozzco (Race 8, No.3) - Really really like this dog. Bombed it last week and ran into about 5 dead-ends until making late ground beaten a fair way into 5th. When last in work was racing against Timberland and Hayder Bale and such. He does need to begin a little better but if he does, look for improvement and each-way odds. Big big show.

Casino

Lay - Rapid Puzzle (Race 6, No.4) - Sizzling winner at Tweed Heads recently in a scorching BOD 23.43. This race is much harder and draws a horror box at the tight Casino track. Will need to be at his ultra ultra best to lead at the first turn, and again in a field which again can all hold its own, the dog that leads will probably win and I cant see this dog doing it with the speed Mystical Mandy and Grand Canyon and She Rose High have between it.

Best - Go Wild Me (Race 12, No.1) - Talented type resuming from a spell. Recorded a solid trial result recently and with Norway Miss who is reknowned slow beginner, this greyhound should get a sweet lead and recorded its 13th win.

Value - Kamikaze Magpie (Race 8, No.6) - Dog has one of the biggest motors in QLD but also has half a brain. Bounced back to its best form at Ipswich when first up from a spell recording a blistering 25.11 win over the 431m. Has been freshened up again for this assignment and awkward box should ensure it gets sent around a $6 shot and if I get that or over, Ill jump on board.

Traralgon

Lay - Dan Flack (Race 4, No.8) - Been racing consistently of late but not really recording the times to be competitive here. Comatosed won last start from an inside draw in 16.98 where as Dan lead all the way from an outside box in just 17.48. Loads of talent drawn inside and banking on one of those 3 to easily hold Dan Flack to the first turn.

Best - Sir Stackalot (Race 2, No.6) - In a race lacking any real depth, this greyhound has shown alot of consistency lately and is due to break through in this field. Only minor query for me is the 7 crashes to the fence but is a slow beginner, so it should be able to avoid the 7. If it can, it should win.

Value - Shadowlands (Race 6, No.1) - Greyhound that has loads of talent but rarely puts it together. Draws the red today which is always a case for improvement and with luck in running, this dogs numeric form should send it around double figures, and dont be surprised to see it feature.

The Gardens

Lay - Jedd Lion (Race 9, No1) - Small field suits but will be giving 2 or 3 smart dogs a decent start and cant see this dog coming from behind. Hotdogs top pick at 7/4 looks toast.

Best - Odessa Shiraz (Race 4, No.1) - Looks the class factor of her heat. As long as she takes no ill-effect from her last start tumble then this should be landing on the bunny and running them ragged as shown by her string of wins.

Value - Bogie Brave (Race 5, No.8) - Really interesting race where their looks to be a super speed battle early between the toey Octane Show and also Elite Blue Size. This should enable Bogie Brave to get a sweet cart out wide and run down the outside. Easily the strongest dog in the race, and with early carnage, look for it to swoop.

Albion Park

Lay - He'll do (Race 4, No.6) - Winner of 2 of 3 race starts over this sprint trip. Very weak last week when it was not able to lead clearly and noticably tired up the straight. Box 6 is horror over the sprint and this favourite will get polaxed early and miss a place.

Best - Sunlander (Race 9, No.2) - Something did not look right with Sunlander last week. Lets hope trainer has fixed it up because even if this dog is 75% it will be winning. Racing in outstanding fashion.

Value - Earth Quest (Race 8, No.6) - Slowly regaining the form which saw him winning races in the city. Lead and was run down by the smart Visualation recently. This is a super drop in class for it, but has to contend with a box 6. Great each-way show.

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 24th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $6300
Return - $6260

Profit - -$40 (-0.6%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 27

Broken Down Results of lay run
Favourite - 10
2nd Favourite - 8
3rd Favourite - 4
Other - 5

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Geelong

Full Maiden meeting means very little exposed form as well as alot of first starter's so will not even attempt an analysis of the meeting.

With that being said, Pipczak has a talented Maiden running in the 4th race at Geelong known as Metropolis. Has not had much luck to date after firing out of boxes and getting run down over the 450m at Ballarat in the VBIS series. 347m suits and has been freshened right up for this assignment. Look for vast improvement if he has kept it this long. Longest price sent out in his 8 starts is $6.90 reflects his ability which he has not been able to showcase yet. Look for a similiar price today.

Shepparton

Lay - Joseph Bale (Race 8, No.1) - Highly talented greyhound who bounced back to winning form when taking out a decent Horsham race defeating Remo Rubik. Was gifted the race with the way the box draw panned out and alot of slow beginners around. Tends to get a long way back and pounds home, which suited at the long straight up the Horsham track. Different here at Shepparton with alot of speed early and see it getting way too far and rattling home when the race is over.

Best - Whistling Drive (Race 4, No.1) - Dropping massively in class from racing against the likes of Aint Workin, Next Top Model, Mantra Lad and Jean Jeannie. Tends to bomb the start at alot of his races but when he decides to wind up he has a sickening explosive burst at the end of the races and with lack of talent in this field, even his box skills should not get him beat. Couple him all up with Flash of Light.

Flash of Light (Race 7, No.1) - Absolutely no luck at all in recent runs in much harder company than it meets here. From the red, will jump in front and run them a merry dance. Far far too classy here and the price will reflect. For multi players, I would be looking at BENJI MAGIC to find some form and claim a placing behind the winner.

Value - Viva Las Vegas (Race 8, No.7) - Anticipating money will come fast and hard for Batesy red runner giving us something to work with, with this greyhound. Boxed perfectly out wide and two slow beginners in 6 and 8 means this greyhound should find the lead comfortably and whilst it can carve out 25.30 running out in front, doubt much will get near it.

Richmond

Lay - Velocity Gem (Race.8, No.5) - Superior numeric form (1,2,1,3,1) around the Bathurst sprint circuit and recently the 400m Richmond trip. Both runs around the 400m track has seen it round around 23.20. That is DEFINETLY not quick enough to even come close to winning this race. Combine that with a bad box and a pretty hot field. Easy lay.

Best - Moonshine Party (Race 7, No.1) - Drawn to perfection. Small field. Has dazzling early and mid race accelleration but finds it tough to run the full 535m out. With the field its in today though, should be able to easily set up a winnable lead and hold off any challengers.

Value - Killarney Babe (Race 3, No.8) - I really have a good feeling about this dog this afternoon and will have be having a sizeable crack. It has not won lately, but has been thereabouts in super company. Placed last week off the red in sizzling 22.61. Prior to that 4th behind Marko Polo, and the super impressive Seize the Moment. Its form is first class and it gets it chance to improve.

No time for tips tonight.



Cranbourne Cup Tip



Arvo's Florence - No disputing this up and coming chaser looks the goods. Drawn to perfection outwide, with the slow wide running Ultra Rumble in 8. Made the opponents look like cats in the heat and with all the FEDEX hype which I am taking no part of, I put this on top.



GL WITH PUNTING!!

Well, Arvo's Florence ended up blowing to the hills and paying an amazing $9.10 on the tote. Ridiculous overs for a dog drawn to perfection, racing in peak form and had the quickest heat win. All the FEDEX hype was to no avail.



Both lays for Monday were sent around favourite and missed placings..Lays are about to pop over 30 in a row, keep an eye on the run.



Whistling drive all into Flash of Light would get you $4.50 on ST. Not bad for a few lock dogs. Very surprised at Whistling Drives price to be honest.



Viva Las Vegas very dissapointing even tho didnt come out that well. Joseph Bale was smashed into near even money and bombed the start which was obvious and couldnt make ground on the Shepparton track.



Stay tuned for full cap of todays races..

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 26th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $6600
Return - $6470

Profit - -$130 (-2%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 29

Broken Down Results of lay run
Favourite - 12
2nd Favourite - 8
3rd Favourite - 4
Other - 5

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Angle Park

Lay - Satanic Ruler (Race 2, No.6) - Ive burnt some money on this dog which charges late too much and today leave it alone. Its split times to the first marker are horrific and finds as much trouble in races as Lettuce Leaf Lad(thats saying something). It will be giving them a 10 length start again and good luck making that up at Angle Park

Best - Beer Time (Race 5, No.8) - Just looks too good on paper. $2.50 by watchdog. Wow if you get that, unload. Speed from Token Class will give it the sweetest cart accross and with no one in the field being able to get under 30.40 at best, this greyhound can go 5 lengths quicker than that. Really looks superior.

Value - Dolly's hand (Race 3, No.8) - Former Victorian dog who impressed in a few runs at Traralgon. Not a load of luck at the tough 535m Richmond in really tough company. Today it meets much much easier company. Draws a good box, and provided it has had a trial around the track and knows its way around, should be ultra prominent through out. Last 30 metres is the concern.

Sandown

Vic Breeders Maiden Series on today, so again with limited form and first starters, much too hard to correctly analyse the races.

Albion Park

Lay - Sargent Elite (Race 10, No.8) - Consistent sprinter who I believe is suited more to an inside draw than out. In a field where a few of them will run 23.00 flat on the bunny, the box will probably beat this dog, and Id prefer to lay then back as the hotdogs top rated and top picked greyhound.

Best - Tizza Lady (Race 2, No.1) - Sizzling 25.31 Ipswich winner on debut who had no luck in the final. Drawn the red over the 395m and meets one of the more moderate fields of recent times. Simply too good.

Value - On the Ball (Race 10, No.1) - In the race where I am laying the pink, I think this greyhound is due for a bit of good luck. And will receive every possible from the best draw over the sprint trip. Has been racing against the likes of Pink Character and Rickaby and none of these sprinters are of that ilk. Granted a few can hold their own, but this dog with a slow beginner in 2, is drawn to make a vast improvement on current numeric form. Go close.

The Gardens

Lay - Go Go Rock (Race 3, No.6) - Consistent performer clocking in 6 placings from 7 starts at track. Last start winner over the 272m from a draw closer to rails in ok time. Suspect over the 413m trip and meet a super handy field here and again the hotdogs top tip looks like it has met too much talent here to be competitive. Leave alone.

Best - Laurie's Placard (Race 6, No.8) - Super quick greyhound who has sizzling early and mid race pace. Drawn to perfection outwide and watch it scorch to the first marker and then put a gap on them down the back straight. Far too good.

Value - Pascaleena (Race 9, No.7) - Numeric form of 37874. Forget that. Highly talented dog who has been racing in MUCH MUCH harder than this lot. At best has scintillating box speed but tends to be found over the last 30 metres. Look for it to ping today and hopefully run them merry.