The latest odds are Efficient and Septimus equal favs ($7 each)
Reasons why Efficient can't do it again
-Only 5 horses in the history of the race have won it twice (or more) and only 4 have won it 2 years in a row
-He gets a weight penalty because of last years win
-He Didnt beat an overly great field of stayers last year (partly due to EI) and this years field will probably be a lot stronger
Also considering the track rating of the 2007 cup, a time of 3:23 is pretty slow although this probably only sheds light on the rest of the field and this is not always a true indicator because it depends if there is a strong pace setter in the race, however he did only win it by half a length (even though i'm sure Rodd only pushed him as hard as he needed to)
I know some of these points are probably debatable but just something to consider.... And having said all that I still think hes a good chance but I like Septimus at this stage, however don't be fooled too much by his huge wins in Europe - he hasnt beaten many good stayers so I suppose theyre making him look good but he has still been very impressive it must be said.