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Old 01-27-2010, 08:22 AM
Poizun Poizun is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 124
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Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 26th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $6600
Return - $6470

Profit - -$130 (-2%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 29

Broken Down Results of lay run
Favourite - 12
2nd Favourite - 8
3rd Favourite - 4
Other - 5

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Angle Park

Lay - Satanic Ruler (Race 2, No.6) - Ive burnt some money on this dog which charges late too much and today leave it alone. Its split times to the first marker are horrific and finds as much trouble in races as Lettuce Leaf Lad(thats saying something). It will be giving them a 10 length start again and good luck making that up at Angle Park

Best - Beer Time (Race 5, No.8) - Just looks too good on paper. $2.50 by watchdog. Wow if you get that, unload. Speed from Token Class will give it the sweetest cart accross and with no one in the field being able to get under 30.40 at best, this greyhound can go 5 lengths quicker than that. Really looks superior.

Value - Dolly's hand (Race 3, No.8) - Former Victorian dog who impressed in a few runs at Traralgon. Not a load of luck at the tough 535m Richmond in really tough company. Today it meets much much easier company. Draws a good box, and provided it has had a trial around the track and knows its way around, should be ultra prominent through out. Last 30 metres is the concern.

Sandown

Vic Breeders Maiden Series on today, so again with limited form and first starters, much too hard to correctly analyse the races.

Albion Park

Lay - Sargent Elite (Race 10, No.8) - Consistent sprinter who I believe is suited more to an inside draw than out. In a field where a few of them will run 23.00 flat on the bunny, the box will probably beat this dog, and Id prefer to lay then back as the hotdogs top rated and top picked greyhound.

Best - Tizza Lady (Race 2, No.1) - Sizzling 25.31 Ipswich winner on debut who had no luck in the final. Drawn the red over the 395m and meets one of the more moderate fields of recent times. Simply too good.

Value - On the Ball (Race 10, No.1) - In the race where I am laying the pink, I think this greyhound is due for a bit of good luck. And will receive every possible from the best draw over the sprint trip. Has been racing against the likes of Pink Character and Rickaby and none of these sprinters are of that ilk. Granted a few can hold their own, but this dog with a slow beginner in 2, is drawn to make a vast improvement on current numeric form. Go close.

The Gardens

Lay - Go Go Rock (Race 3, No.6) - Consistent performer clocking in 6 placings from 7 starts at track. Last start winner over the 272m from a draw closer to rails in ok time. Suspect over the 413m trip and meet a super handy field here and again the hotdogs top tip looks like it has met too much talent here to be competitive. Leave alone.

Best - Laurie's Placard (Race 6, No.8) - Super quick greyhound who has sizzling early and mid race pace. Drawn to perfection outwide and watch it scorch to the first marker and then put a gap on them down the back straight. Far too good.

Value - Pascaleena (Race 9, No.7) - Numeric form of 37874. Forget that. Highly talented dog who has been racing in MUCH MUCH harder than this lot. At best has scintillating box speed but tends to be found over the last 30 metres. Look for it to ping today and hopefully run them merry.

Last edited by Poizun; 01-27-2010 at 09:09 AM.
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