View Single Post

  #27 (permalink)  
Old 01-25-2010, 01:43 PM
Poizun Poizun is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 124
Default

Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 24th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $6300
Return - $6260

Profit - -$40 (-0.6%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 27

Broken Down Results of lay run
Favourite - 10
2nd Favourite - 8
3rd Favourite - 4
Other - 5

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Geelong

Full Maiden meeting means very little exposed form as well as alot of first starter's so will not even attempt an analysis of the meeting.

With that being said, Pipczak has a talented Maiden running in the 4th race at Geelong known as Metropolis. Has not had much luck to date after firing out of boxes and getting run down over the 450m at Ballarat in the VBIS series. 347m suits and has been freshened right up for this assignment. Look for vast improvement if he has kept it this long. Longest price sent out in his 8 starts is $6.90 reflects his ability which he has not been able to showcase yet. Look for a similiar price today.

Shepparton

Lay - Joseph Bale (Race 8, No.1) - Highly talented greyhound who bounced back to winning form when taking out a decent Horsham race defeating Remo Rubik. Was gifted the race with the way the box draw panned out and alot of slow beginners around. Tends to get a long way back and pounds home, which suited at the long straight up the Horsham track. Different here at Shepparton with alot of speed early and see it getting way too far and rattling home when the race is over.

Best - Whistling Drive (Race 4, No.1) - Dropping massively in class from racing against the likes of Aint Workin, Next Top Model, Mantra Lad and Jean Jeannie. Tends to bomb the start at alot of his races but when he decides to wind up he has a sickening explosive burst at the end of the races and with lack of talent in this field, even his box skills should not get him beat. Couple him all up with Flash of Light.

Flash of Light (Race 7, No.1) - Absolutely no luck at all in recent runs in much harder company than it meets here. From the red, will jump in front and run them a merry dance. Far far too classy here and the price will reflect. For multi players, I would be looking at BENJI MAGIC to find some form and claim a placing behind the winner.

Value - Viva Las Vegas (Race 8, No.7) - Anticipating money will come fast and hard for Batesy red runner giving us something to work with, with this greyhound. Boxed perfectly out wide and two slow beginners in 6 and 8 means this greyhound should find the lead comfortably and whilst it can carve out 25.30 running out in front, doubt much will get near it.

Richmond

Lay - Velocity Gem (Race.8, No.5) - Superior numeric form (1,2,1,3,1) around the Bathurst sprint circuit and recently the 400m Richmond trip. Both runs around the 400m track has seen it round around 23.20. That is DEFINETLY not quick enough to even come close to winning this race. Combine that with a bad box and a pretty hot field. Easy lay.

Best - Moonshine Party (Race 7, No.1) - Drawn to perfection. Small field. Has dazzling early and mid race accelleration but finds it tough to run the full 535m out. With the field its in today though, should be able to easily set up a winnable lead and hold off any challengers.

Value - Killarney Babe (Race 3, No.8) - I really have a good feeling about this dog this afternoon and will have be having a sizeable crack. It has not won lately, but has been thereabouts in super company. Placed last week off the red in sizzling 22.61. Prior to that 4th behind Marko Polo, and the super impressive Seize the Moment. Its form is first class and it gets it chance to improve.

Last edited by Poizun; 01-25-2010 at 02:28 PM.
Reply With Quote