Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 20th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections

Outlay - $4650
Return - $4510

Profit - $-140 (-3%)

*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.

Run of Lays getting beaten - 16

*Lays are 80% of the time, one of the top 3 dogs in the market and around 30-40% of the time they are favourites. Anyone can lay a 100-1 shot, but my selections are dogs either favourite or in the market!

Bendigo

Lay - Marchell (Race 5, No.3) - Watchdog has tipped on top and looks suited here? Not even close. Virtually the entire field are handy dogs at this middle distance, where Marchell will struggle severly to not only match these dogs for early speed, but he will not be close to storng enough to hold them out. Big lay. Lucky to even run a place, look for him at the tail of the field. Sent out as third favourite and ran last. Enough said.

Best - Ashleigh Ella (Race 7, No.8) - Big class factor who blew away the super impressived Aston Trivett in 30.03 when last in week. Loves wide draws. Had no luck when first up from a spell when barely beaten in slick time by the smart Tis The One. Looks suited to this draw and class and should cover this lot well. Sizzled early sizzled home. Lead all the way in a flying 24.01

Value - Girl from Texas (Race 10. No.2) - Will without a doubt start double figures, if not in the 20's somewhere. Form looks ordinary but has been racing against the likes of Miss Martini, Cool Times and Olga Doll.. All very slick runners who would blow this field away. Only win came from this same draw and with a very ordinary field combined here, look for improvement at huge odds.

Maitland

Lay - No lay on card. Wanted to put Seize the moment, but it does have lengths on the field. But still be wary when taking him today. He musters well but this field can squeeze him up early and alot of this dogs will run about in 22.70 or 60 with a clear go and will make it hard from him to come behind in that sort of time. Super Laurie is the main danger in that race. Sent out odds on and didn't even run a place. Enough said.


Best - No best bet on the card

Value - Devine Rise (Race 4, No.8) - In a race jammed back with formlines and dogs putting strings of wins and 2nds together, the red based on its 22.66 win from the red looks like it will gets sent out a short favourite, but with speed in 2 and 3, I can see this dog getting cramped and chopped out early. Boxes 6 and 7 have no speed at all, so this will suit Devine Rise in the pink, as well as recording his PB from this box and the big wide track will ensure this dog gets every possible. BIG SHOW. Did not see race, just result. 2nd

Agent Maxwell (Race 10, No.6) - Really interesting dog. Has had one win at the track in a sizzling 22.64. I tell you now, if it runs this, it will win and win well. This is not a hard race. Form looks ordinary, but has been racing harder dogs than this. Gets its chance to bounce back into the winners list and as long as it handles Box 6, it goes close.

Sandown

Lay - Pub Fund (Race 11. No.3) - Prolific provincial winner not suited to the 515m at Sandown, nor the short run to the first marker. Needs to lead clearly to have even a chance of hanging on. Bit of a speed outside of it, and as the more than likely favourite of the race, Id glad lay this then be a punter 10/10.

Best - Paragon Patch (Race 8, No.3) - Grand ole chaser who can wreck its chances by bad beginnings. If this dog has any luck in running it will win and win running away..Am glad it is drawn closer to the fence then out wide. Both dogs on its inside dont show blistering pace, so it should position up close enough to take control on the point of the home turn. Cant miss a place.

Value - Another Innings (Race 9, No.8) - No luck of late and I mean no luck at all. Not super ideally drawn in the pink at sandown but with 2 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts from outside draws, he can certainly handle it. Meets a full field of provincial chasers and recently has been racing against the ilk of Iso Octane (off the pace to 3 lengths).

Angle Park

Lay - Cyan Lorian (Race 9, No.2) - The HotDog form have this greyhound as their top pick and top rated. Not sure if this is correct, but if it is, I am a bit surprised. Even though it looks as though the trip wiil suit, stepping up ridiculously in class against the likes of Kimberely Jinx, Barely's Image and the ultra impressive Satanic Cash (who really should be winning)

Best- High Earner (Race 8, No.1) - How can you look past him after last weeks top win. Drawn ideally in the red and Dyna Lachlan and Turanza Bale drawn next to him arent the best of beginners lately so he will have every chance to lead and if he does he wins. Simple. Star chaser.

Value - Redline Elly (Race 3, No.1) - Hit n miss beginner who needs some clear room early. No doubt its motor and I always like to back dogs with big motors. Wouldnt say its ideally drawn in the red but is a class factor dog.

Albion Park

Lay - Velocity Trish (Race 5, No.3) - Boxed shocking with Long Time Mama on it's inside a notorious quick beginner and Tap and Rack who is classer type who has been racing the likes of Vociferious and Robo Raptor. Wont get any room to move early and is an on pace runner. Can't come off the pace. Leave alone.

Best - Visualisation (Race 7, No.3) - Had it last week when it ran 2nd, aim to go one better here when racing verse the odds-on in the red. Should get value because of this fact and loves Albion Park being placed 18 of 24 runs there with a slashing PB of 30.13.

Value - Carlingford Frost (Race 10, No.2) - No speed at all in the inside 4 boxes will allow this dog every possible chance to land in front over the 600m. If it does, very hard to hold out and will be huge odds. Has been out of form of late, but this race is suitable to bounce back.

Hobart

Lay - Capetown Kid (Race 3, No.3) - Slow beginner who needs everything to go right. Hotdogs top tip meets a pretty solid Maiden Semi final. Look for him to be in trouble and unwinding at the end into third.

Best - Damek (Race 5, No.1) - Not sure what this dog is doing in a maiden series in Hobart after its almost unbelievable 26.10 Heat win. To give you an idea of how dominating that is, in the 8 semi finals, the 2nd quickest dog went 26.47. The difference between him and the next best dog out of the remaining 64 dogs is 6 lengths. Thats dominating. He is short and he wins. He wins final too.

If you want another measuring stick for this greyhound, Prankster won the Hobart Cup in 26.05. Enough said for a dog having his first race start from Box 5 too lol.

Value - Spark Driver (Race 1, No.6) - Races like this distance will suit and has his solo victory from a wide draw. Favourite last time was victorious but not ultra impressive. Big odds and worth an each-way ticket.

Dapto

Lay - On Parole (Race 6, No.2) - I am probably going to regret this and this will end my streak of lays, but I have to stick with my gut. Dog has a flawless record of 5 wins and 2 seconds at 7 starts at the track. However, it meets one of the hottest fields this dog has encountered. It has no early speed anymore at all. Half these dogs can break 30 seconds and for the simple fact that he wont lead this field and he is going to need luck hugely, I am going to advise against anchoring this in exotics or backing.

Best - Snowsil (Race 9, No.1) - Again, I layed this at even money last week and it got rolled for the first time in its career. Tonight, boxed much much better it should get the cake. No luck last start, it should get a sweet ride on the rails and improve to victory.

Value - Billy Said (Race 8, No.2) - Dog is racing with not an ounce of luck. Came off the pace to run 3rd beaten 4 lengths in a SUB 30 time at Nowra. This dog is reknowned for being a front running dog. Tonight it gets it chance to lead and be veryyyy hard to roll if this happens.