Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 18th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections
Outlay - $4050
Return - $3880
Profit - $-170 (-4%)
*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.
Angle Park
Lay - Diana Bale (Race 8, No.1) - Has speed to burn early which will be why this should be sent out right in the market. Very weak at the end of its racing and lead all the way recently in a far below par run of 30.86. This field is much stronger and with a quicker beginner on its outside in Nirimba Dancer will sure be tussling in the early stages and this dog does doesnt like that. ClasS from all the boes 5-8 should tell.
Best - Border Patrol (Race 7, No.2) - Has not done much wrong since coming to SA. Only failure was at Angle Park when he founds bucketloads of trouble and even then he clocked a respectable 30.59. Other wins have been impressive on the bunny and should have the pace to be prominent at the first turn and lead all the way.
Value - Brer Fox (Race 3, No.8) Racing without much luck of late. Tends to find trouble in its racing which doesn't help its cause. Concern is in over 100 starts it has not won from Box 8, but does have 4 wins from the 7. Drops slightly in class today, and with Rowland Bale who is generally a slow beginner, it could position up much closer and is a strong dog at the end of its races. Each-way ticket.
Devonport
Lay - Topline Doovee (Race 6, No.1) - Great tassie chaser who has the amazing stats of 9 starts for 7 wins and 2 placings at TRK/DIST. Won last 3 on end in brilliant fashion and even though Gardam Prince will probably start favourite, this dog will definetly be the close 2nd fav. Would not be surprised to see Gardam to start $2.20 with Topline around $2.70. I highly doubt it can hold out Gardam Prince at the first turn and with swooping runs from the middle of the track from Accounts, Cradoc Park, Shunted it is going to make the job ultra hard for him to take the cup down and at the price, I would definetly love to be a bookie!. Gardam Prince though with too much toe early to lead all the way for me.
Best - Perfect Socks (Race 10, No.7) - Looks perfectly placed in this GR5 after scoring an ultra impressive win from a similiar box in 30.02 at Launceston. Minor query is yet to win at track in 3 starts(2 minors), but over this distance it should ping, cross the field, and if it does, get in the queue.
Value - One Wheel (Race 7, No.1) - OoOoOo - This is the one I tipped to run second in the heats at monstrous odds when the lure broke down. It was vying for the lead, and had held out Akka Boy for the moment. It's numeric form is horrible. Early markets have it at 7/1. No one has it tipped it anywhere. I feel very confident of a big run. This dog has bundles of ability and when it put its all together its one slick dog. Not the best beginner in Whispering Blaze on the outside of it, is going to make its job much easier. Follow hard!
Horsham
Lay - Supreme Level (Race 7, No.8) - Layed it last week when sent around odds-on and missed a place. Today, it won't get into odds on, but you can guarantee it will be right in the market. Its form has really tappered off of late. Today, it meets a field about 10x harder than it did last start. Based on what Ive seen lately, I doubt it will even run a place in this field.
Best - Remo Rubik (Race 8, No.8) - Wow, does this look like a good thing or what. Marrok Bale is a slow railer. Box 6 is empty. Our Toyman could not come out running if its life depended on it. It is going to have not a trouble in the world leading tonight. Drops ridicuosly in class and if you get anywhere CLOSE to the $2.10 in the watchdog form, get on and get on hard.
Value - Lankan Flash (Race 5, No.8) - Looks like will start double figures and has 3 good runs back from a short spell. Races consistently being placednearly 50% of all starts and altho I have recently learnt of the bad position of box 8 at Horsham over the decent, I do believe with alot of speed drawn in the inside 4 boxes there could be some carnage and this dog can begin good.
Ipswich
Lay - Sheeza Picture (Race 8, No.7) - Quickest heat winner but from an inside draw. Not suited at all to the 7 and yet to win from Box 6 or out. Meets a field full of talent that can run similiar time and many of the dogs are drawn better. Labelled prepost favourite, I wouldnt be jumping in too hard....
Best - Crystalizaion (Race 9, No.2) - Found its distance as a stayer. Took a while to learn about racing but is now putting its best paw forward. Drawn close to the rail for once (15 starts for only 3 starts in boxes 1-4, the other 12 starts boxes 5-8), is an upcoming who meets a field where it shouldnt miss a place if it gets rolled.
Value - Royal Samba (Race 5, No.3) - Been racing with no luck at all of late. Is normally a front running greyhound who finds it tough to finish races off, but has definetly been getting stronger and stronger in racing. Found lots of trouble last week and did not get beat a long way in a slick time. Look for it to bounce back and lead tonight and run em a merry dance.
Last edited by Poizun; 01-19-2010 at 02:11 PM.
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