Running total on Best Bets from Jan 5th - Jan 13th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections.
Outlay - $4700
Return - $4135
Profit - $565 (-12%)
Running total on Value Bets from Jan 10th - Jan 13th (STab) based on a $50W/$100P on all selections
Outlay - $2400
Return - $2580
Profit - $180 (+9.3%)
*Best Bets are dogs I view that should not miss a place and generally win. You will see small variance in profit but long term it should slowly rise and shouldnt lose money following these tips.
*Value Bets are dogs I anticipate the market will overlook and pay a respectable price. This does not necessarily mean they are the best dog in the race, but they are what I believe will pay overs. That being said, you will see a lot of variance in profit due to this fact.
Bendigo
Lay - Pure Tonic (Race 6, No.1) - In what has been labelled the watchdog's best bet, I have to disagree. What the form does not really show, is the abundance of speed capable to come from boxes 1-4. Corporal Bond (Box 2) gave us a glimpse last week of how he can begin when not quite holding out Just Eileen and Guitar Hero and Pure Peaches can come out running too.. Watch for Krebs to carve across from the pink. Whoever survives the early scrimmage will win, as their are no notorious swoopers in this race, but when they will more likely send this round an even money shot, Id prefer to put my cash somewhere else.
Best - Graceful Amy (Race 9, No.2) - Racing against the likes of Jarvis Bale, Guacamole and Tafari Bale. In a race lacking any early speed in the inside boxes, Graceful Amy should be able to find the early lead and if it does its strength over the longer trips will show and it will win.
Value - Krebs (Race 6. No.8) - In the same race as my lay, I think this greyhound will get a dream run out wide. Loves the track (17 starts for 2 wins and 8 minors), has a very nice PB of 24.29 and has been there abouts lately.
Maitland
Lay - New Divide (Race 9, No.3) - Young dog who recorded a very slick win at the Gardens at his second start. This will ensure he starts odds on and first look at Maitland from a squeeze box with direct speed on your inside will mean he won't have the race handed to him on a platter. There are 2 or 3 dogs who I am sure can match it with him.
Best - Little James (Race 4, No.1) - At his top this brilliant short course specialist would blow them away. There is only one query. He has had 4 months off the racing scene. However, he returns fresh, draws a fantastic box and if he has come to race, he will prove far far too superior.
Value - Hassell (Race 3, No.5) - Notorious slow beginner who gets warm in the middle of races and charges home late. Has been racing on the tight Wentworth Park circuit lately and has been running well. Will be suited by the big wide Maitland track and the extra distance suits. Mrs Trickett will start short, with Bread and Butter second pick, so definite value for this runner.
Angle Park
Lay - Springvale Dash (Race 6, No.6) - Struggled last start when never out of trouble. Also, spiting it because it cost me probably around $700 haha. Box 6 has done it no favours in a race where there is oodles and oodles of speed and if this dog cant get in front of High Earner, which it wont, it has no chance of running it down.
Best - High Earner (Race 6, No.4) - This looks a stand out for me. Awesome run last week when it did loads and loads of work behind Dyna Lachlan and still was only beat 2 lengths in a breathtaking BON of 29.50. This dog is absoultely faultless over the first 100m, and even with Manuel Bale and Sunny Boy Love inside of him, he should be able to work to the front by the first turn and that will be that. If you can get anything better than $3 on fixed betting, have a crack.
Value - Remo Rubik (Race 5,No.7) - In what is a super race, Remo has been boxed beautifully out wide in the fact that Drink Driver isnt the worlds best beginner and Rev Limiter will take one step left as soon as it leaves the boxes, so this will give Remo Rubik every possible chance going into the first turn. Dyna Lachlan will start favourite but will have to stave off all the speed that will come from Where's Diamond, Boozeroo and Fevolution. No trouble out wide, and an awesome 29.38 Sale winner after having to do work shows he can still run a strong 500 out. Currently the 10/1 outsider in hotdog and if you get that, giggle away.
Adelaide Cup Predictions
Semi Final 1
Great race, where I am going to put my best value bet of the day on top. See reasons above. I think Dyna Lachlan may find trouble early and be giving Remo Rubik too much of start. Boozeroo is a powerful bitch who has run some sizzling times in Adelaide so she will definetly be in the mix. Rev Limiter is dodgy at box rise and tends to cut left straight out of boxes, but will chase all day long.
Remo Rubik, Dyna Lachlan, Boozeroo, Rev Limiter
Semi Final 2
High Earner is one super talented pup with El Galo like box manners. This should put him in as a red hot favourite to take out this heat. I think Manuel Bale will get squeezed out early with Sunny Boy Love holding the fence behind High Earner. Outwide, Springvale Dash and Dyna Forte will more than likely get beaten for speed early but they are both strong and will be scorching home out wide on the track at the end of the race.
High Earner, Sunny Boy Love, Springvale Dash, Dyna Forte
Semi Final 3
This is one tough mofo of a race. The only genuine early speed in the race seems to come from Mr Metz, but he is meeting one hot heat and if he does not lead, he will not run a place, so thats a gamble there. Prankster and Lady Gaga are both unreliable at box rise, as is Dentax Bale, but he is definetly a case for the fence. In a race, where I could go 10 different ways and still miss it by a long shot, lets take Lady Gaga and hope that Jason Thompson has this dog firing tonight. For second I will take Prankster to carve across with Dentax Bale rattling home. Look also for Grand Siyan who will stay outwide and avoid all trouble. Mr Metz to find trouble early and run near last.
Lady Gaga, Prankster, Dentax Bale, Grand Siyan
Semi Final 4
Turanza Bale has been one of the most unluckiest chasers in recent times but definetly one of the most talented. He is a case for the fence as he jsut crashes left and rails hard. He showcased this in The Shootout when he refused to go around Velocette and was nailed to the rail. Fedex and Sheoak Ian will come out running and could cause each other trouble and Turanza Bale may end up closer than normal. Strictly Mambo to be charging late.
Turanza Bale, Fedex, Strictly Mambo, Sheoak Ian
Albion Park
Lay - Bellbird Park (Race 2, No.1) - This was my lay last week when it ran 5th as second favourite. Tonight it meets a similiar assignment if not harder. Speed in 2,3,5 will ensure if it leads it will have to work extremely hard for it and will be found wanting at the end. If it does not lead it cant run a place. Treat with caution.
Best - 2 Best bets on the card.
Robo Raptor (Race 6, No.3) - Highly talented youngster who is as tough as they come. Will prove far too superior and is a must for quaddie anchors. Follow this dog in some feature events in future.
Visualisation (Race 10, No.1) - Was goin to make this the special last week but thought it would be way too short from box 5, but sent it around nearly $4!!!. From box 1, it looks a treat to hold the lead into the first turn and if it does, that will be the end of it.
Value - Mystic Rumble (Race 5, No.6) - Not suited to a tight track like Lismore, this greyhound should get a little more room to move. It's run behind Black Attack when it went done a nose (0.03L), was an awesome effort and even though it has only won 1 of 16 here, it has been placed in another 7 and he should be figuring in the finish somewhere.
Dapto
Lay - Snowsill (Race 7, No.8) - 3 starts, 3 wins. On paper looks good and against this line up, it looks very good. However, based on times, a 22.99 Bulli win, 30.54 and 30.33 at Dapto, is good without being anywhere near spectacular. This will surely get sent around odds on, and with dogs like Deaksey, Seriously, Cool Lion Heart and Autowave who might get a clear crack tonight, can run very similiar time so I would definetly be wary on this and it will not be an anchor for me tonight.
Best - Excel Like Speed (Race 5, No.8) - If you want an anchor in the quaddie this is it. Class act who meets extremely moderate opposition. Will get a clear run from the pink and should land on the speed and career off the back straight and win easily.
Value - He's Hotz Stuff (Race 9, No.2) - Recorded his PB off this draw and drops a little in class. Has recorded 3 wins from 7 starts at this track but his numeric form of 55485 is enough to sway punters away and send this dog out at way over the odds. Has not raced for 3 weeks, so will be fresh for this event. Ticket each-way.
Hobart
Lay - Hudson (Race 5, No.8) - Has not missed a place from his last 5 starts but all have been from inside boxes. He draws off the track and thats definetly the wrong spot for this greyhound. This will get sent around favourite, and do not be at all surprised if it misses a place.
Best - Lettuce Leaf Lad (Race 7, No.1) - Seriously, this dog has had worst luck than you will see of late. Draws inside and the check is a slow wide runner. Surely it bounces back tonight. Has a sizzling PB to his name and should get room to move early. Wins.
Value - Swami (Race 10, No.8) - In what seems a fairly evenly matched race on paper, Swami is a talented ex-Victorian dog who has been racing against the likes of Pure Thirst and Pneumonia Alley. He likes to track wide in races, so he wont miss a place from this box.
Sandown Park
Race 1
Early pace from Black Sakura and Sassi Jay will be challenging for the early lead. Greysynd Thunder boxed well out wide and has not missed a top 2 finish in its last two starts and Upsy Daisy will be charging along the fence late.
Black Sakura, Greysynd Thunder, Upsy Daisy, Sassi Jay
Race 2
Hooded Keats should be able to lead this field comfortably with Banger Harvey sitting right on its back. These 2 should get space to race early and clear out with a big enough lead to battle out the finish. The two strongest dogs in the race are Shakey Bake and Allen Ulrick. If there is any trouble up front watch for these swoopers.
Hooded Keats, Banger Harvey, Shakey Bake, Allen Ulrick
Race 3
Smoken Ichiban looks like he will get every chance to lead all the way, Guacamole will just stay outwide and grind away all the day. Tethrahedron, Acquired Taste, Kurnai King and Join the Queue will be the swoopers from the back.
Smoken Ichiban, Guacamole, Join the Queue, Tethrahedron
Race 4
Ashby Rose bounced back to form with a super 25.30 win at Warnambool and if she repeats that, she will win here. Cruiser Joy is a talented bitch who has had no luck of late. Same can be said about the McDonald trained Rose Chalice. These 2 are both open for improvment. Teaman Titch and Questa Bale will be giving the leaders a start but they are the swoopers.
Ashby Rose, Cruiser Joy, Rose Chalice, Questa Bale
Race 5
Last week, I layed Gypsy Flame as the favourite and it ran 5th. Tonight, it is boxed and positioned well in this race. There is no direct speed near it, and it should be able to find the lead at the first turn. Based on its recent 29.85, if this happens it should lead all the way. Merrily Mack is boxed well and is a smart thinking greyhound who will utilise this box well. Cooper Bale and Blitzem Bale will be flying late.
Gypsy Flame, Merrily Mack, Cooper Bale, Blitzem Bale
Race 6
Mystical Soul is boxed to win and only breaking down will stop it from winning. The inside 3 boxes should fill the minor placings here with all their early dash. Standout special for quaddie.
Mystical Soul, Book Of Music, Arvo's Breeze, Fire Miss
Race 7
Zenith meets a group that would be battling to stay within 3 lengths of it to the first marker. Tonight it should run them ragged with a sizzling first split. Nelly Bale and Violet Crumble are both showing good form and from the inside 2 boxes they should be running right behing the tearaway leader. Arvo's Florence can be hit n miss but watch it mid-race start to warm up.
Zenith, Violet Crumble, Nelly Bale, Arvo's Florence
Race 8
The key to the race comes from the inside boxes. Gabla Jack has great toe and Crossfarnogue ran a sizzling 5.13 to the first marker when it took a star like Birthday Boy to run it down. Put it on top over Galba Jack. Miss Mega Pins should get a gun run behind the leader and watch for Viva Vegas and Ultra Rumble flashing late.
Crossfarnogue, Galba Jack, Miss Mega Pins, Ultra Rumble
Race 9
Who Told Helen is dropping in class and could find the early lead and take the cash at her 82nd start. Viva Las Vegas is not drawn on the right side of the track but does have a slashing 25.30 win at Ballarat from an inside draw and should get all the favours behind the leader. Stagger Inn, Kandy Bale and Lots of Moolah best of the race for multiples.
Who Told Helen, Viva Las Vegas, Kandy Bale, Lots of Moolah
Race 10
Another Innings had not an ounce of luck last week and depsite its awkward draw, gets its chance to improve on its debut with the big boys. Selynya Magic was my value tip last Thursday night and went down half a length at $22. It will be suited by a wide draw and should be figuring somewhere in the finish. Best of the rest, are the four inside boxes who all show speed and would not surprise.
Another Innings, Selynya Magic, Brazen Buey, Bomber Fury
Race 11
Last Stress has been racing against the best of the best lately and it drops back in class tonight and should get a clear run from the pink. Catch up Sunday and Intoxicate are both young dogs showing loads of talent and with luck they should feature prominently. Lucent has talent.
Last Stress, Catch Up Sunday, Intoxicante, Lucent
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