Courtesy of Foxsports.com.au

NRL grand final

September 30, 2009

WHAT, WHERE & WHEN:
Grand final, ANZ Stadium, Sunday, 5pm (EDT)

FORM GUIDE (past five matches):
LWWWW (Storm), WLWWW (Eels)

THE NEXT STEP:
Winner: Will be named 2009 NRL premiers.
Loser: Will be the 2009 NRL runner's-up

TALE OF THE TAPE:
Melbourne Storm enter Sunday’s match as the first side since Parramatta in 1981-84 to make four grand finals in a row. They will be looking for their third premiership after reaching the decider thanks to a 40-10 demolition of Brisbane Broncos. Parramatta on the other hand, are playing in their first grand final since 2001 (where they lost to Newcastle Knights) and are attempting to win their first premiership since 1986. But they are entering the game with momentum on their side, winning 10 out of their past 11 matches. Head-to-head, the Storm are in front 12-9, but they have not beaten the Eels in the past two seasons. The two last met in round 19, where the Eels won 18-16 at Parramatta Stadium.

KEY MEN:
Greg Inglis (Storm): He is a proven big-time performer and his finals form to date has been nothing but exceptional. A three-try performance against Brisbane Broncos in the preliminary final will have the 2007 Clive Churchill Medallist primed for a big match against the Eels. His attacking ability, along with his punishing tackles, will make him hard for Parramatta to stop.

Jarryd Hayne (Eels): After being cleared by the match review committee on Sunday, Hayne will be seen as the danger man for the Storm in this weekend’s match. His ability to weave through any defensive line makes him a constant threat and his match up against opposing fullback Billy Slater will be a highlight. The fight for the Kangaroos No.1 jersey will be on!

IS THE STAT RIGHT?
Parramatta’s 18-16 win over the Storm in round 19 triggered a remarkable run, with the Eels losing only one match from ten since then. Melbourne have won their past four matches by a combined total of 156 points to 26. Melbourne haven’t played at ANZ Stadium this season, while the Eels have lost just once from five games there in 2009. Melbourne fullback Billy Slater has scored six tries in his past two matches. Eels sharpshooter Luke Burt has missed just one shot from his past 21 attempts at goal.

MATCH ODDS:
Melbourne Storm $1.60, Parramatta Eels $2.35 (TAB Sportsbet; 30/9)

LAURIE DALEY SAYS: "The three things that are standing out for the Eels at the moment is the impact that Fuifui Moimoi is having, the way they are offloading and the brilliance of Jarryd Hayne.

Moimoi has been the driving force in the middle of the park and the way he was belted and continued to run on Friday night was fantastic. He’s playing with a cracked rib, so he’s a tough man. I think even if Nathan Cayless is ruled out, Fuifui will still play the same sort of game because I don’t think he can afford to change. I think if Cayless is there, he can get a bit of second-phase play going, which is one of Parramatta’s strengths. Melbourne have to stop the offloads if they are to be successful this week.

Jarryd Hayne is the Eels’ x-factor because you just don’t know what he’s going to do. He can just bob up anywhere and if the ball shoots out the back from second-phase play, he can attack you.

The Storm themselves are very structured, the give nothing away, they control the ball and their kick-chase is very good. Then you throw in the skill and freakish ability of Greg Inglis and Billy Slater, who you can’t afford to give any opportunities in your own 20-metre area. Melbourne are very professional, they get the job done, they don’t get overawed, they don’t go away from their plan and they don’t get frustrated. That’s what Parramatta have been doing as well and they have to keep believing in their systems and play the way that has got them there. The Eels have to continue to not be overawed, start the game full of excitement and do what they’ve been doing.

I’m going to tip Melbourne here, given that if anyone can shut down the offloads of Parramatta, they can. I think their tackling technique and their ability to control the tackle is the best in the competition. They look fresh, they look positive and they look fast. If things stick for Parramatta it’ll be a close game but based on the strength of some key positional players, I think Melbourne will win."

PREDICTION: Melbourne by four points.